Risk Control ( or Loss Control ) Survey

It is interesting to get involved to a building, a factory, a warehouse, a terminal port, an airport, and some different types of working environments.  Each place has it's own property of working, and it's style of people working inside it.

When doing survey, one must first have a grasp of where he is, and do some research beforehand.  Type of work, equipment types, any dangerous material... to categorize all the risks, there are two kinds of unsafe: unsafe behaviors, unsafe environments.

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工作比想像中的更具有挑戰性，因為需要加強的不僅是專業知識，許多應對進退和與人交涉的技巧都必須要能夠掌握，而所謂應對進退的困難點就在於並非直接坦白的說明事情即可，而必須要經過峰迴路轉的考慮，思考其他層級的人會如何理解，並且加以修飾。但常常，還是會發生跟預設結果不一樣的狀況。舉一個今天的例子，要請人提供某檔案格式的資料前，要先問「一般這樣的東西都是使用什麼格式儲存」「那有沒有其他格式」這樣拐彎抹角的方式問，有的時候我實在是沒辦法這麼快速的上手，就把要問的問題直衝出口，我想是因為，那樣子講話太麻煩了呀。

量化寬鬆 Quantitative Easing

Sources are taken from BBC News - Q&A: Quantitative easing

（以英國為例）首先，在財政機關的允許下，英格蘭銀行藉由創造自己的銀行戶頭「創造」很多錢。

 

銀行希望能夠藉由創造出來的錢刺激消費，並提振經濟，於是開始花錢，以購買金融公司（例如銀行、保險公司、退休基金等）所持有之政府債券為主。

由於銀行購買債券，使得債券價值升高（供需），故債券不再成為吸引投資者的標的。釋出債券的公司轉而投資其他公司或個人。

若金融公司更加積極地借貸，他們所收取的利率應該會降低，促進開銷，刺激經濟。

理論上，當經濟回穩時，英格蘭銀行將先前所購之債券賣出，並且「銷毀」回收的現金。此舉避免創造出來的錢長久地在市場流通（避免通膨）。

關於利率的部分，Wikipedia的解釋：

市場利率的形成，是源於市場機制形成的金融市場，在政府管制利率的市場是沒有意義的。在政府管制的市場，基準利率的高低由金融監管當局直接規定的，並允許其在一定閾值範圍內上下浮動；在利率並非由政府金融監管當局直接規定的市場，市場利率的形成受資金供求雙方的直接影響。一般而言，市場利率是在債券市場上形成的，而具有代表性的債券品種主要是政府債券。當購買政府債券的多方佔主導，即購買政府債券的買方大於賣方，那麼就會抬高債券的實際交易價格，從而導致政府債券價格與實際交易價格的差額減小，進而使得收益率的減小，從而導致市場利率的下降；反之，則市場利率上升。

Currency War

To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war

Sir Winston Leonard Spencer Churchill 1874-1965

After reading the article of The Economist posted at Oct 14th 2010 "How to stop a currency war"

The world economy has been on a war footing, and the currency is going to be the weapon, both rhetorically and in practice. There are three main wars, first is the undervalued Yuan, another is the rich world's monetary policy, the other is how developing countries respond to these capital flows. The contention is hot, either to retaliate on China's currency policy or not. If a provocation move is acted, menacing real war will on. But it is not fair to treat China as the only scapegoat, this is a multilateral problem (sotto voce, Brazil, Japan, EU.) Since the global economic debate has been recast in battlefield terms, behind all the smoke and fury, there are in fact battles, for example, tariff setting. The menace of imposing tax on foreign capital inflows, like Brazil recently doubled a tax on foreign purchases of its domestic debt, and Thailand announced a new 15% withholding tax for foreign investors in its bonds. In the article analysis, "there is no room for complacency" of the currency bill is milder than it sounds and it has yet to be passed by the Senate or signed by U.S. president. A truly draconian capital controls are dangerous. So don't be obstinate, this ware is better not to be fought.

Somalia Pirates

聯合國海洋法公約(UNCLOS)視海盜行為為萬國公罪，無論各國皆有權拿捕。聯合國大會決議各國可出動海軍討伐索馬利亞海盜。美國海軍建立一套通訊平台，讓美、中、俄羅斯各國海軍能夠溝通無礙，合作進擊。

但為何海盜攻擊未曾止息？

1. 海盜散佈在廣大的西索馬利亞海盆之上發動攻擊，距離海岸數百浬，海軍無法有效巡防
2. 索馬利亞海盜艱苦的成長背景讓他們根本不把人命當一回事，腦子發展最完整的是暴力神經，海軍武力鎮壓成效有限
3. 拿捕海盜之後如何處置？法律程序很複雜，抓到海盜之後只能沒收武器、給他們吃飯，然後他們就又自由回到公海繼續闖禍
4. 儘管國際法視海盜為萬國公罪，但被攻擊的船可能使用權宜船旗(FOC)、船員組成複雜，如何對海盜提出法律控訴是個問題